Research
Working papers and publications in macroeconomics and finance. Most links point to PDFs; click Abstract to expand.
Working papers
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Forward Guidance and Financial Conditions
Earlier policy-oriented version: FCI-plot: Central Bank Communication Through Financial Conditions, presented at the 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Board.
Abstract
Forward guidance has recently been contested, most visibly in the United States. We investigate its benefits and costs in a model in which monetary policy reaches the economy through financial conditions. Noisy flows move those conditions, and because the central bank adjusts its interest rate gradually, they open output gaps. Arbitrageurs trade against the noise but do not fully offset it, because they are uncertain about policy. Guidance resolves the central bank's view of future demand, which lowers that uncertainty and recruits the arbitrageurs to absorb more of the noise. But the announcement also moves financial conditions today, even though the level the central bank wants today has not changed. The optimal guidance intensity balances these forces. It rises with the amount of noise, with policy uncertainty, and with the persistence of the central bank's view. We then compare interest rate guidance with financial conditions guidance. A projected interest rate embeds the central bank's view of the risk premium alongside its view of the economy, so for a given communication effort it conveys less. Financial conditions guidance can always attain the optimal guidance intensity, whereas interest rate guidance attains it only when guidance is not particularly valuable. Even when both attain it, interest rate guidance requires more communication effort. How much a central bank must say therefore depends on what it talks about. -
Exchange Rate Stabilization and Monetary Transmission
Abstract
Conventional wisdom, rooted in the Mundellian trilemma, holds that exchange rate stabilization constrains monetary policy. We challenge this view for emerging markets with shallow financial markets. Across 16 emerging economies, we document that the pass-through from policy rates to market interest rates is strongest at intermediate levels of exchange rate volatility, and weaker under both free floats and hard pegs—an inverted-U pattern. We rationalize it with a model of segmented financial markets in which binding risk limits make domestic arbitrage demand inelastic. We show that this inelasticity weakens the transmission of policy rates to market interest rates. Exchange rate stability attracts foreign investment in local currency assets, which absorbs risk, relaxes the limits, and makes arbitrage demand more elastic. This strengthens transmission and gives the central bank better control over the output gap. Starting from a pure output-gap rule, it is always optimal to introduce some exchange rate stabilization. However, excessive stabilization, such as a hard peg, can backfire by raising policy rate volatility and increasing the risk borne by arbitrageurs. -
Abstract
Central banks rely on r*—the neutral interest rate—to assess policy stance. However, monetary policy affects activity through broad financial conditions, not only the short-term rate. We propose FCI*, the neutral level of a financial conditions index consistent with output at potential. Unlike r*, FCI* is insulated from financial fluctuations: when asset prices move, FCI captures their estimated effect on output, leaving FCI* to reflect only what the macroeconomy requires. In U.S. data, r* co-moves with the equity premium; FCI* does not. FCI gaps provide useful real-time guidance on policy stance, especially when financial conditions diverge from the policy rate. -
Financial Conditions Targeting in a Multi-Asset Open Economy
Abstract
We analyze monetary policy responses to noisy financial conditions in an open economy where exchange rates and domestic asset prices affect aggregate demand. Noise traders operate in both markets, and specialized arbitrageurs have limited risk-bearing capacity. Monetary policy creates cross-market spillovers: by adjusting the interest rate to stabilize one market, the central bank influences volatility in the other. We show that targeting a financial conditions index (FCI)—a weighted average of exchange rates and domestic asset prices—delivers substantial macroeconomic benefits. FCI targeting commits the central bank to respond to unexpected movements in financial conditions beyond what discretionary monetary policy implies. These stronger responses improve diversification across markets: each market becomes more exposed to external shocks but less exposed to its own. This reduces volatility in both markets and activates the recruitment effect in each market—lower variance induces arbitrageurs to trade against noise, further dampening volatility. Foreign exchange (FX) targeting can also be effective when the exchange rate is the primary source of noise, with benefits that increase as the economy becomes more open. In this case, FX targeting recruits arbitrageurs to stabilize the FX market, reducing volatility and dampening the macroeconomic impact of noise. However, FX targeting also raises volatility in non-targeted markets through anti-recruitment effects, limiting its effectiveness relative to FCI targeting, especially when domestic asset markets also matter for financial conditions and are comparably noisy. -
Financial Conditions Targeting
Abstract
We present evidence that noisy financial flows influence financial conditions and macroeconomic activity. How should monetary policy respond to this noise? We develop a model where it is optimal for the central bank to target and (partially) stabilize financial conditions beyond their direct effect on output gaps, even though stable financial conditions are not a social objective per se. In our model, noise affects both financial conditions and macroeconomic activity, and arbitrageurs are reluctant to trade against noise due to aggregate return volatility. Our main result shows that Financial Conditions Index (FCI) targeting—announcing a (soft) FCI target and striving to maintain the actual FCI close to the target—triggers an endogenous return volatility-reducing feedback loop that stabilizes the output gap. This improvement occurs because the policy allows arbitrageurs to absorb noise more effectively. We also demonstrate that FCI targeting is strictly superior to traditional interest rate forward guidance. Finally, we extend recent policy counterfactual methods to incorporate our model's endogenous risk reduction mechanism and apply it to U.S. data. Our estimates indicate that FCI targeting could have reduced the variance of the output gap, inflation, and interest rates by 36%, 2%, and 6%, respectively, and decreased the conditional variance of the FCI by 55%. When compared with interest rate forward guidance, it would have reduced output gap variance by 21%. The stabilizing role of FCI targeting is particularly salient during the period from 2000Q1 to 2007Q4, a period dominated by financial noise shocks. -
Abstract
Türkiye's response to post-pandemic inflation is a cautionary tale of how political pressure for low interest rates can trap policymakers in increasingly destabilizing policy actions. While central banks worldwide raised interest rates to combat inflation in 2021–2023, Turkish authorities pursued the opposite strategy: cutting real rates to deeply negative levels while implementing an array of financial engineering tools, FX interventions, and financial repression policies to stabilize markets. The centerpiece was a novel FX-protected deposit scheme (KKM) that guaranteed depositors against currency depreciation, effectively shifting exchange rate risk to the government balance sheet. We provide a detailed account of this policy experiment and develop a theoretical model that captures the key mechanisms, with a focus on understanding how KKM functions and creates vulnerabilities. Our model reveals that pressure to keep interest rates below inflation-targeting levels can lead to an interconnected destabilizing sequence. Low rates generate inflation, current account deficits, and exchange rate depreciation. FX interventions can temporarily stabilize the exchange rate, but the depletion of reserves exposes the country to sudden stops that trigger more severe currency crises. KKM can temporarily stabilize the crisis but create growing contingent fiscal burdens that rise with inflation and exchange rate depreciation. Crucially, KKM's option-like payout structure creates vulnerability to self-fulfilling currency and sovereign debt crises, which explains various additional policies adopted at the time, including capital flow management, financial repression, and an eventual return to orthodox monetary policy. As central banks worldwide face renewed pressure to set lower policy rates, Türkiye's experience illustrates the potential consequences. -
Stock Market Wealth and Entrepreneurship
Abstract
We use data on stock portfolios of Norwegian households to show that stock market wealth increases entrepreneurship by relaxing financial constraints. Our research design isolates idiosyncratic variation in household-level stock market returns. An increase in stock market wealth increases the propensity to start a firm, with the response concentrated in households with moderate levels of financial wealth, for whom a 20 percent increase in wealth due to a positive stock return increases the likelihood to start a firm by about 20%, and in years when the aggregate stock market return in Norway is high. We develop a method to study the effect of wealth on firm outcomes that corrects for the bias introduced by selection into entrepreneurship. Higher wealth causally increases firm profitability, an indication that it relaxes would-be entrepreneurs' financial constraints. Consistent with this interpretation, the pass-through from stock wealth into equity in the new firm is one-for-one. -
A Monetary Policy Asset Pricing Model
Abstract
We propose a model where the central bank's (“the Fed's”) interpretation of macroeconomic needs drives aggregate asset prices. The Fed affects macroeconomic activity with a lag by altering aggregate asset prices. Its objective is to align future aggregate demand and supply (in expectation). We reverse engineer the aggregate asset price that implements the Fed's objective (“pystar”) and derive several implications: (i) the Fed's beliefs about future macroeconomic needs (aggregate demand and supply) drive aggregate asset prices, while standard financial forces determine relative asset prices; (ii) more precise news about future aggregate demand makes output less volatile but increases asset price volatility; (iii) with aggregate demand inertia, the Fed overshoots asset prices in response to current output gaps; (iv) inflation is negatively correlated with aggregate asset prices, regardless of its source (aggregate demand or supply); and (v) belief disagreements between the central bank and the market generate a policy risk premium and potential “behind-the-curve” asset price dynamics. -
Abstract
Should monetary policymakers raise interest rates during a boom to rein in financial excesses? We theoretically investigate this question using an aggregate demand model with asset price booms and financial speculation. In our model, monetary policy affects financial stability through its impact on asset prices. Our main result shows that, when macroprudential policy is imperfect, there are conditions under which small doses of prudential monetary policy (PMP) can provide financial stability benefits that are equivalent to tightening leverage limits. PMP reduces asset prices during the boom, which softens the asset price crash when the economy transitions into a recession. This mitigates the recession because higher asset prices support leveraged, high-valuation investors' balance sheets. The policy is most effective when the recession is more likely and leverage limits are neither too tight nor too slack. With shadow banks, whether PMP “gets in all the cracks” or not depends on the constraints faced by shadow banks.
Earlier working papers
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Durability, Deadline, and Election Effects in Bargaining
Abstract
We propose a tractable model of bargaining with optimism. The distinguishing feature of our model is that the bargaining power is durable and changes only due to important events such as elections. Players know their current bargaining powers, but they can be optimistic that events will shift the bargaining power in their favor. We define congruence (in political negotiations, political capital) as the extent to which a party's current bargaining power translates into its expected payoff from bargaining. We show that durability increases congruence and plays a central role in understanding bargaining delays, as well as the finer bargaining details in political negotiations. Optimistic players delay the agreement if durability is expected to increase in the future. The applications of this durability effect include deadline and election effects, by which upcoming deadlines or elections lead to ex-ante gridlock. In political negotiations, political capital is highest in the immediate aftermath of the election, but it decreases as the next election approaches. -
Moral Hazard and Efficiency in General Equilibrium with Anonymous Trading
Abstract
A “folk theorem” maintains that competitive equilibria with asymmetric information are always (or generically) inefficient unless agents' consumption can be fully monitored by the principal (and specified in contracts). We critically evaluate these claims in the context of a general equilibrium economy with moral hazard. We allow agents' consumption to be partially monitored (e.g., employment contracts can specify how long a vacation agent takes, but not where she spends her vacation). We identify weak separability of agents' preferences between non-monitored consumption and effort as the necessary and sufficient condition for efficiency (e.g., weak separability implies how much the agent likes Bahamas vs. Hawaii is independent of her effort level). We also establish ε-efficiency when there are only small deviations from weak separability. These results delineate a range of benchmark environments under which general equilibrium has strong efficiency properties even though agents' consumption is not fully monitored.
Publications
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Central Banks, Stock Markets, and the Real Economy
Abstract
This article summarizes empirical research on the interaction between monetary policy and asset markets, and reviews our previous theoretical work that captures these interactions. We present a concise model in which monetary policy impacts the aggregate asset price, which in turn influences economic activity with lags. In this context: (i) the central bank (the Fed, for short) stabilizes the aggregate asset price in response to financial shocks, using large-scale asset purchases if needed (the “Fed put”); (ii) when the Fed is constrained, negative financial shocks cause demand recessions; (iii) the Fed's response to aggregate demand shocks increases asset price volatility, but this volatility plays a useful macroeconomic stabilization role; (iv) the Fed's beliefs about the future aggregate demand and supply drive the aggregate asset price; (v) macroeconomic news influences the Fed's beliefs and asset prices; (vi) more precise news reduces output volatility but heightens asset market volatility; (vii) disagreements between the market and the Fed microfound monetary policy shocks, and generate a policy risk premium. -
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect
Abstract
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their steady-state levels consistent with current potential output). Overshooting leads to a temporary disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the real economy, but accelerates the recovery. When there is a lower-bound constraint on the discount rate, overshooting becomes a concave and non-monotonic function of the output gap: the asset price boost is low for a deeply negative initial output gap, grows as the output gap improves over a range, and shrinks toward zero as the output gap improves further. This pattern also implies that good macroeconomic news is better news for asset prices when the output gap is more negative. Finally, we document that during the Covid-19 recovery, the policy-induced overshooting was large enough to explain the high levels of stock and house prices in 2021. -
A Note on Temporary Supply Shocks with Aggregate Demand Inertia
Abstract
We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and the central bank is concerned about future constraints on expansionary policy. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. However, the policy does not remain loose throughout the low-supply phase. Overall, when the initial aggregate demand is low, the goal is to frontload the rate cuts to raise demand in anticipation of the recovery of supply. If inflation also has inertia, the central bank still overheats the economy during the low-supply phase but gradually cools it down over time. -
Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets
Abstract
We build a model in which the Fed and the market disagree about future aggregate demand. The market anticipates monetary policy mistakes, which affect current demand and induce the Fed to partially accommodate the market's view. The Fed expects to implement its view gradually. Announcements that reveal an unexpected change in the Fed's belief provide a microfoundation for monetary policy shocks. Tantrum shocks arise when the market misinterprets the Fed's belief and overreacts to its announcement. Uncertainty about tantrums motivates further gradualism and communication. Finally, disagreements affect the market's expected inflation and induce a policy trade-off similar to cost-push shocks. -
The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation
Abstract
I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative bubbles and leverage limits depend on perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about downside tail scenarios can explain the emergence and the collapse of leveraged speculative bubbles. Speculative bubbles are related to rational bubbles, but they match better the empirical evidence on the predictability of asset returns. Even without short-selling constraints, speculation induces procyclical asset valuation. When speculation affects the price of aggregate assets, it also influences macroeconomic outcomes such as aggregate consumption, investment, and output. Speculation in the boom years reduces asset prices, aggregate demand, and output in the subsequent recession. Macroprudential policies that restrict speculation in the boom can improve macroeconomic stability and social welfare. -
Previously circulated as A Model of Asset Price Spirals and Aggregate Demand Amplification of a “Covid-19” Shock.
Abstract
In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe aggregate demand contractions following a large real (non-financial) shock; and (ii) demonstrate the effectiveness of Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) in addressing these contractions. The key mechanism stems from heterogeneous risk tolerance: as a recessionary shock hits the economy and brings down asset prices, risk-tolerant agents' wealth share declines and their leverage rises endogenously. This reduces the market's risk tolerance and generates downward pressure on asset prices and aggregate demand. When monetary policy is unconstrained, it can offset the decline in risk tolerance with an interest rate cut that boosts the market's Sharpe ratio. However, if the interest rate policy is constrained, new contractionary feedbacks arise: recessionary shocks lead to further asset price and output drops, which feed the risk-off episode and trigger a downward loop. In this context, LSAPs improve asset prices and aggregate demand by transferring risk to the government's balance sheet, which reduces the market's required Sharpe ratio. Optimal LSAPs are larger when the (consolidated) government has greater future fiscal capacity and the downward spiral is more severe. In an extension, we show how corporate debt overhang problems strengthen our mechanisms. The Covid-19 shock and the large response by all the major central banks provide a vivid illustration of the environment we seek to capture. -
Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach
Abstract
We provide evidence of the stock market wealth effect on consumption by using a local labor market analysis and regional heterogeneity in stock market wealth. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and in total, while having no effect on employment in tradable industries. In a model with consumption wealth effects and geographic heterogeneity, these responses imply a marginal propensity to consume out of a dollar of stock wealth of 3.2 cents per year. We also use the model to quantify the aggregate effects of a stock market wealth shock when monetary policy is passive. A 20% increase in stock valuations, unless countered by monetary policy, increases the aggregate labor bill by at least 1.7% and aggregate hours by at least 0.7% two years after the shock. -
The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation
Abstract
Financial innovation in recent decades has expanded portfolio choice. We investigate how greater choice affects investors' savings and asset returns. We establish a choice channel by which greater portfolio choice increases investors' savings by enabling them to earn the aggregate risk premium or to take speculative positions. In equilibrium, portfolio customization (access to risky assets beyond the market portfolio) reduces the risk-free rate. Participation (access to the market portfolio) reduces the risk premium but typically increases the risk-free rate. Empirically, stock market participants in the U.S. save more than nonparticipants, and have increasingly dispersed portfolio returns, consistent with the choice channel. -
A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation
Abstract
We provide a continuous-time “risk-centric” representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly effective in dealing with shocks to asset valuations. However, in practice monetary policy faces a wide range of constraints. If these constraints are severe, a decline in risky asset valuations generates a demand recession. This reduces earnings and generates a negative feedback loop between asset prices and aggregate demand. In the recession phase, average beliefs matter not only because they affect asset valuations but also because they determine the strength of the amplification mechanism. In the ex-ante boom phase, belief disagreements (or heterogeneous asset valuations) matter because they induce investors to speculate. This speculation exacerbates the crash by reducing high-valuation investors' wealth when the economy transitions to recession, which depresses (wealth-weighted) average beliefs. Macroprudential policy that restricts speculation in the boom can Pareto improve welfare by increasing asset prices and aggregate demand in the recession. -
A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment
Abstract
We develop a model of gross capital flows and analyze their role in global financial stability. In our model, consistent with the data, when a country experiences asset fire sales, foreign investments exit (fickleness) while domestic investments abroad return home (retrenchment). When countries have symmetric expected returns and financial development, the benefits of retrenchment dominate the costs of fickleness and gross flows increase fire-sale prices. Fickleness, however, creates a coordination problem since it encourages local policymakers to restrict capital inflows. When countries are asymmetric, capital flows are driven by additional mechanisms, reach-for-safety and reach-for-yield, that can destabilize the receiving country. -
Should Retail Investors' Leverage Be Limited?
Lead article.
Abstract
Does the provision of leverage to retail traders improve market quality or facilitate socially inefficient speculation that enriches financial intermediaries? We evaluate the effects of 2010 regulations that cap leverage in the U.S. retail foreign exchange market. Using three unique data sets and a difference-in-differences approach, we document that the leverage-constraint reduces trading volume by 23%, alleviates high-leverage traders' losses by 40%, and reduces brokerages' operating capital by 25%. Yet, the policy does not affect the relative bid-ask prices charged by the brokerages. These results suggest the policy improves belief-neutral social welfare without reducing market liquidity. -
Reach for Yield and Fickle Capital Flows
Abstract
In Caballero and Simsek (2017), we develop a model of fickle capital flows and show that, when countries are similar, international flows create global liquidity and mitigate crises despite their fickleness. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric situation of Emerging Markets (EM) exchanging flows with Developed Markets (DM) that feature lower returns but less frequent crises. Relatively high DM returns help to mitigate EM crises by reducing fickle inflows and by providing greater liquidity. The situation dramatically changes as the DM returns fall, as this increases the fickle inflows driven by reach for yield and exacerbates EM crises. -
Investment Hangover and the Great Recession
Abstract
We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. Overbuilding of durable capital such as housing requires a reallocation of productive resources to other sectors, which is facilitated by a reduction in the interest rate. When monetary policy is constrained, overbuilding induces a demand-driven recession with limited reallocation and low output. Investment in other capital initially declines due to low demand, but it later booms and induces an asymmetric recovery in which the overbuilt sector is left behind. Welfare can be improved by ex post policies that stimulate investment (including in overbuilt capital) and ex ante policies that restrict investment. -
Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage
Abstract
We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps. When constrained households engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to fall to induce unconstrained households to pick up the decline in aggregate demand. If the fall in the interest rate is limited by the zero lower bound, aggregate demand is insufficient and the economy enters a liquidity trap. In this environment, households' ex ante leverage and insurance decisions are associated with aggregate demand externalities. Welfare can be improved with macroprudential policies targeted toward reducing leverage. Interest rate policy is inferior to macroprudential policies in dealing with excessive leverage. -
A Welfare Criterion for Models with Distorted Beliefs
Western Finance Association NASDAQ OMX Award for the Best Paper on Asset Pricing.
Abstract
This paper proposes a welfare criterion for economies in which agents have heterogeneously distorted beliefs. Instead of taking a stand on whose belief is correct, our criterion asserts that an allocation is belief-neutral efficient (inefficient) if it is efficient (inefficient) under any convex combination of agents' beliefs. While this criterion gives an incomplete ranking of social allocations, it can identify positive- and negative-sum speculation driven by conflicting beliefs in a broad range of economic environments. -
Belief Disagreements and Collateral Constraints
Lead article.
Abstract
Belief disagreements have been suggested as a major contributing factor to the recent subprime mortgage crisis. This paper theoretically evaluates this hypothesis. I assume that optimists have limited wealth and take on leverage so as to take positions in line with their beliefs. To have a significant effect on asset prices, they need to borrow from traders with pessimistic beliefs using loans collateralized by the asset itself. Since pessimists do not value the collateral as much as optimists do, they are reluctant to lend, which provides an endogenous constraint on optimists' ability to borrow and to influence asset prices. I demonstrate that the tightness of this constraint depends on the nature of belief disagreements. Optimism concerning the probability of downside states has no or little effect on asset prices because these types of optimism are disciplined by this constraint. Instead, optimism concerning the relative probability of upside states could have significant effects on asset prices. This asymmetric disciplining effect is robust to allowing for short selling because pessimists that borrow the asset face a similar endogenous constraint. These results emphasize that what investors disagree about matters for asset prices. -
Speculation and Risk Sharing with New Financial Assets
Abstract
I investigate the effect of financial innovation on portfolio risks when traders have belief disagreements. I decompose traders' average portfolio risks into two components: the uninsurable variance, defined as portfolio risks that would obtain without belief disagreements, and the speculative variance, defined as portfolio risks that result from speculation. My main result shows that financial innovation always increases the speculative variance through two distinct channels: by generating new bets and by amplifying traders' existing bets. When disagreements are large, these effects are sufficiently strong that financial innovation increases average portfolio risks, decreases average portfolio comovements, and generates greater speculative trading volume relative to risk sharing volume. Moreover, a profit seeking market maker endogenously introduces speculative assets that increase average portfolio risks. -
Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity
Brattle Prize for the best paper in Corporate Finance, second place.
Abstract
Financial assets provide return and liquidity services to their holders. However, during severe financial crises many asset prices plummet, destroying their liquidity provision function at the worst possible time. In this paper we present a model of fire sales and market breakdowns, and of the financial amplification mechanism that follows from them. The distinctive feature of our model is the central role played by endogenous complexity: as asset prices implode, more “banks” within the financial network become distressed, which increases each (non-distressed) bank's likelihood of being hit by an indirect shock. As this happens, banks face an increasingly complex environment since they need to understand more and more interlinkages in making their financial decisions. This complexity brings about confusion and uncertainty, which makes relatively healthy banks, and hence potential asset buyers, reluctant to buy since they now fear becoming embroiled in a cascade they do not control or understand. The liquidity of the market quickly vanishes and a financial crisis ensues. -
Financial Innovation and Portfolio Risks
Abstract
I illustrate the effect of financial innovation on portfolio risks by using an example with risk-sharing needs and belief disagreements. I consider two types of innovation: product innovation, formalized as an expansion of new financial assets; and process innovation, formalized as a reduction in transaction costs. When belief disagreements are large, both types of innovation increase portfolio risks. Moreover, endogenous financial innovation is directed towards speculative assets that increase portfolio risks. -
Türkiye'nin Enflasyon Tercihleri
Book chapter, in Turkish.
Other
Columns and essays
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Financial conditions matter more than interest rates: A new framework for monetary policy
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A risk-centric perspective on the central banks' Covid-19 policy response
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Risk intolerance and the global economy: A new macroeconomic framework
Books
Theses
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Essays on Uncertainty in Economics
Advisors: Daron Acemoglu, Ricardo Caballero, and Muhamet Yildiz.
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Analysis of Critical Points for Nonconvex Optimization
Advisor: Asuman Ozdaglar.
Publications in mathematics
Early writing
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An Economic Look at the Village Institutes
An old term paper written as a student for an MIT course on economic history.